「Gゼロ」提唱者イアン・ブレマーと読み解く、グローバルサウスの正体

Potolicchio: To finish our tour around the global south, Ian, I want to get your thoughts on South Africa, and then Brazil.

Bremmer: I'd say South African citizens, and certainly the government, broadly view rich countries as very comfortable to do nothing to address the inequalities that exist between them and Africa. South Africa's view is that they should never, an African country, should never enter any engagements with rich countries with a begging bowl and they should never walk away from negotiations being satisfied with being fed table scraps. That's really this, I mean, kind of still feeling that they're at the wrong end of a neocolonial set of policies. Certainly, you see a lot of that in their rhetoric, diplomatically, but they're also calling on other African countries to push for trade and diplomatic relations with rich nations that don't just focus on extraction of raw materials, and no value add, but also scientific knowledge and skills transfers and partnerships on a more equal footing, like what China has been doing over the last 20-30 years, which has gotten them out of the Global South.

In that regard, they've been pushing for reform of multilateral institutions, like the UN Security Council, the WTO, for greater representation for African countries and the African Union. They've been advancing not only their own foreign policy interests but also those of the continent, you see that particularly in the G7. That was particularly true during the pandemic, with the joint proposal with India to The WTO, for that TRIPS Intellectual property waiver to manufacture vaccines, as well as getting the first pharma company on the continent in 2021 to create local vaccine manufacturing capability, also mRNA transfer hubs in Cape Town.

South Africa's bilateral relations with India and Japan have been pretty good in recent years, gradually, sort of including partnerships on higher education, Science, Technology to get beyond the idea of we're just extractive sort of industry from South Africa. India and Japan, are South Africa's third and fourth largest trade partners after China, The US, and Germany. That's a pretty big deal. I think the interesting thing about South Africa, because they are, by far the most advanced and diversified economy on the continent, though not the largest (Nigeria) they're continuing to look at wanting to advance partnerships with rich nations, but at the same time, have hegemonic influence over things inside Africa.

When you see the BRICS, and China wants to expand the BRICS, South Africa's like, "well, let's do a Brexit and Africa summit, we'll be in charge of like all the Africa stuff", which is a little bit like the way the Indians think about not wanting to expand the Quad, they like being in a position where they're the ones that get to have influence with The United States and the advanced countries. Then, they get to discuss that with all the other poor countries. It is definitely a first among region's approach in the Global South.

In Brazil, the Lula administration obviously wants to play a role as a leader in the Global South. Harder for Brazil, given where Bolsonaro was compared to where Lula is. That level of transition, which hasn't really played out so far in the other countries we've talked about, because there's been, frankly, either more consistency or it hasn't mattered as much.

India - the consistency, Turkey - the consistency, South Africa hasn't really mattered as much. I think that the Lula administration rejects the idea of having to choose sides, and they're willing to ruffle some feathers in the process, but Lula specifically wants to play his position as hosting the next G20 summit to move forward the idea of having the Global South play a much greater role. They particularly want to show leadership on environmental issues and their role on deforestation on the Amazon, as a wedge. I expect that that's going to get traction this year, which will then be followed by Brazil hosting the COP Summit, so that's how they're going to play.

Potolicchio: Back to China. There is one of Lawrence Summer's quotes: "When we're engaged with the Chinese, we get an airport. And when we're engaged with you guys, we get a lecture." China and the Global South?

Bremmer: China is, as I mentioned, at the beginning, the largest creditor to the Global South, and Belt and Road has been a massive undertaking over the last couple of decades. For the first decade, they were doing it, the second decade, they branded it, but now it's slowing down. A lot of this is bad debt and a lot of it, they're just trying to extend for countries that are having a hard time servicing it. On the one hand, China is by far the most important trade partner to every one of these Global South countries, that gives them a lot of political influence. On the other hand, China is no longer seen as just writing checks and solving problems for these countries in a way that they were 5-10-15 years ago.

I think that a lot of the countries we're talking about are looking for more than just China. Some of them are looking for security relations with the United States, you see that across Southeast Asia. Some of them are looking for more Western investment to be able to balance and hedge, you certainly see that in Turkey and Brazil. Some of them are just worried that China itself, as an economy, is not a great bet, given that their economy is slowing down, given the challenges that they're facing demographically in terms of their own bad corporate debt and the economic slowdown, despite the end of COVID, zero-COVID. So, yes, the Chinese are very important and they'll continue to play an outsized role for most of these countries compared to the United States, but it's a very assertively hedged drill.